New Delhi: The US bombed three key Iranian nuclear facilities early Sunday, as it jumped into the latest Iran-Israel conflict that has been raging for over a week now.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a call from Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian who briefed him about the situation. PM Modi has called for de-escalation of the mounting tensions in the Middle East. There has been a global outcry against the US’ strikes. And India has also voiced its deep concern over the growing unrest in the region.
Doing a delicate balancing act
For India, the US attack on Tehran can have potential fallout. India has to walk the tightrope and balance its ties with both Israel and Iran — who are its strategic partners. Israel is a defence ally, and Iran an oil supplier. While not letting the relationship getting strained, New Delhi also has to send a clear message to Washington that US can’t violate the UN charter and must give diplomacy a fair chance.
There’s no gainsaying the fact that US is providing “iron clad” support to Israel as it believes Tehran is on the verge on making a nuclear bomb. This backing reflects Washington’s deep concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, in doing so, it is destabilising the region further. It may be recalled that in 2003, US had attacked Iraq on the premise that the Gulf country possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction. This time around, even though US intelligence agencies have not confirmed that Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear bomb, Trump asserted otherwise and went ahead with the attacks.
The US strikes are in clear violation of the UN Security Council resolutions. The UNSC called an emergency meeting late Sunday night where countries like Russia and Pakistan called for a ceasefire in Iran-Israel conflict. China said the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities has damaged Washington’s credibility and Beijing was concerned that the situation “may go out of control”.
India is in a diplomatic bind. But it might find more and more pressure to take a clearer stance in global forums on the Iran-Israel clash. This will necessitate India to carefully adjust its foreign policy to stay neutral while protecting its own interests. It must also engage itself actively in global negotiations to help mitigate tensions and truly be the voice of the Global South.
Potential impact on energy security
The conflict has already reached a tipping point, with Iran moving closer to block the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. If the strait is blocked, India’s energy security could be severely impacted.
Almost 30 percent of the world’s oil and a third of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow through the strait daily, and closure of this passage would immediately cut global supplies, causing a steep rise in prices. Even though US has called any such closure an “economic suicide” for Iran, the Islamic nation can inflict injury on its enemies even it hurts it somewhere. Despite the International Energy Agency saying that even a brief disruption through the strait will have a significant impact on oil markets, Tehran has asserted that closing it is an option.
Experts contend that any disruption in this vital shipping lane would markedly affect India’s crude oil imports from Iraq and, to some extent, from Saudi Arabia. This could put a massive pressure on India’s energy security, driving up import costs and causing fuel prices to rise at home. As a result, the government may be compelled to tap into strategic reserves or look for alternative supply routes to mitigate the impact.
Indian diaspora likely to bear the brunt
If Iran plans to target US troops and bases in the region — mostly in Iraq and Syria — the conflict can intensify further and see more Gulf players like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Qatar getting sucked into it. This will impact the Indian diaspora living in these countries. It is estimated that 9 million Indian live in the Middle East — with UAE being home to most of them. More than 1,400 Indian students have been evacuated from Iran in recent days. If the conflict expands, more Indians will be hit. Their evacuation will also become complex and require resources. It will also call for strong coordination between Indian embassies, the military, and nearby partner countries to bring them back home safely.
