New Delhi: There has been a ceasefire between Iran and Israel after 12 days of military confrontation. Qatar reportedly convinced Iranian officials for the truce, after US sought its help to end the war.
US President Donald Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social that a “complete and total ceasefire” would take effect within 24 hours. Iran has said it will halt attacks if Israel stops its “illegal aggression”.
After the ‘ceasefire’, what’s the road ahead for Iran? What will it do next? Iran’s future course of action will depend on a number of factors. But the most likely developments will revolve around its nuclear programme.
Since its nuclear sites have come under attacks from Israel and US, Iran’s first step would be to carefully reassess the damage caused to these facilities. Trump had claimed the nuclear sites had suffered “monumental damage”, and Iran needs to see the scale of the destruction.
Hard look at nuclear programme
It also has to take a hard look at its nuclear programme, which is under intense global scrutiny. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to put more pressure on Tehran and demand more transparency from it. It will ensure Iran’s compliance with international non-proliferation norms. On the other hand, Iran will take up “violation of UN charter” by US after it attacked the nuke sites. Its foreign minister had said it is “irrelevant to ask Iran to return to diplomacy”.
After the US strikes, Iran had alleged that the non-proliferation treaty (NPT) was unable to protect it and so what was the use of it. Iran will weigh its options to stay in or out of the treaty. But exiting would also mean confronting the diplomatic and economic fallout. Increased sanctions and international isolation will follow. Therefore, it would be wiser for Iran to use the ceasefire in gaining leverage in future talks and on international forums.
Diplomatic manoeuvring
US Vice President J D Vance has pointed out the bombing of nuke sites was an important reset moment for the entire region. It is especially so for Iran, in the context of growing murmurs of a regime change there with 86-year-old Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei poised to hand over the reins. For some time now, Iran has been in the throes of internal change and the bombing and ceasefire will propel a new approach by the government –- which has to balance calls for reform from its own people while dealing with external pressure to reduce tensions, rebuild trust, and reconsider its role in the region. It is high time that stability is restored and people repose faith in the regime.
From the war with Israel, Iran must have learnt quite a few lessons. It will enhance diplomatic manoeuvring and increase its efforts to cement its ties with regional players like Syria, Iraq and Qatar. It will also reach out to its allies – Russia, China and Pakistan – for their backing on global platforms. The ceasefire will remain in effect, but Iran won’t take any chances and likely stay on a high alert, while boosting its military readiness, and be ready for any potential threats.
After the announcement of ceasefire, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday thanked his armed forces for the operations against Israel. He mentioned that his armed forces defended the country “until their last drop of blood” and responded until the “very last minute”. In the next few days, it is most likely that Iran’s leadership will showcase the ceasefire as a strategic win, and lavish more praise on its military, but whether this narrative will truly boost nationalist sentiment remains uncertain.
