New Delhi: The crisis in the Middle-East further intensified last year after Hamas attacked Israel killing over 1,200 people including 46 Americans and abducting over 250. Pledging revenge Israel not only intensified the attacks in the Gaza Strip affecting lakhs of people, but also killed several of its top leaders as well as that of Hezbollah this year. Tensions also increased between Tel Aviv and Tehran, after Israel fired rockets at areas under Iran’s control .
As if that was not enough, rebels in Syria ousted President Bashar-al Assaad from power after entering Damascus. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), too, has lowered its prediction of Middle East economic growth to 2.1 percent for 2024 by 0.6 percent due to ongoing wars and a dip in oil production. However, it further predicted a surge of 4 percent in 2025, depending on the war situation.
Reasons behind ongoing tensions in Middle-East
Since its war began with Arab forces and Palestinians in 1948, Israel clashed with neighbouring countries which further increased in the 1960s causing major diplomatic tensions in the region. In 1967, upset with Egypt’s closing of the Straits of Tiran, Israel launched a major strike against the former. Israel soon gained control of Golan Heights, Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem, and Sinai peninsula. Israel not only claimed control of these areas but avoided the questions related to the settlement of Palestinians.
In December last year, two officers of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Mohammad Ali Atai Shoorcheh and Panah Taghizadeh were killed in Syria during a raid by Israeli forces. Again in March this year, Reza Zarei, a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and two others were killed, leading to tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv. However, Iran has so far refrained from full-blown attack on Israel, even as the later fired a series of missiles at the former in October this year. However, Iran has vowed strong retaliation against its enemies.
Israel not only killed top leaders of Hamas group including Yahya Sinwar, and Ismail Haniyeh, but also OF Hezbollah like Hassan Nasrallah, Ibrahim Aqil, Ibrahim Qubaisi, and Mohammed Srur, among others this year. In September, it attacked Hezbollah forces in Lebanon by exploding hundreds and thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies resulting in the killing of at least 12 people and injuring thousands which included Iran’s envoy to Lebanon. Notably, before the incident, the top leadership of Hezbollah had asked its troops not to use mobiles. However, Israel reportedly managed to conceal explosives inside batteries in pagers that were brought to Lebanon, virtually undetected.
What can be expected in 2025
As the year came to a close, President Bashar-al Assad was ousted from Syria after rebels entered Damascus after close to 12 years of civil war. The war had intensified suddenly this month leading to the fall of Assad’s regime. With the ousted government promising the handover in peace in Syria, the coming days ARE likely to witness a peaceful transition of power in the coming days. Notably, Israel on December 15 this year, decided to increase IT’s population in the annexed Golan Heights after the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria this month.
As soon as Donald Trump assumes the role of the US President yet again, his administration will be required to interfere in the increasing tensions in the region and come out with a solution agreeable to all. Even though this seems too tough, during his previous tenure he did approach North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un for talks. The approach was widely welcomed across the globe.
Given the historic tensions with Israel and Iran, the truce between both countries is highly unlikely. Both Israel and Iran are equipped with powerful weapons and are backed by the US and Russia respectively. The only possibility that may help in reducing tensions is making them sit on negotiating table by other countries. While nobody can tell what will happen in 2025, the increase in tensions will only but plunge the region into war and may even lead to World War III. Considering that almost all other regions depend on the Middle East for oil, the war if occurs will certainly take the world into severe crisis, with the increase in inflation and hunger.
