New Delhi: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is facing a severe internal as tensions over the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) threaten to bring down his ruling coalition. The ultra-Orthodox members in the Knesset plans to bring down the present government to trigger yet another round of national elections in a country already fatigued by political instability.
The immediate trigger of the crisis is the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption law. For decades, full-time yeshiva students from the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community have been exempted from mandatory military service. However, a 2023 ruling by Israel’s High Court of Justice declared these blanket exemptions legally invalid. The ruling directed the state to begin drafting Haredi men into military service, prompting the IDF to initiate the process of recruiting tens of thousands of previously exempt young men.
80k Haredi men aged 18 to 24 eligible for conscription
The numbers are important. Around 80,000 Haredi men aged 18 to 24 are eligible for conscription, but few have enlisted. Meanwhile, the IDF is facing a manpower shortage of 12,000 soldiers, including 7,000 for combat roles. For the military, the court’s ruling presented a long-awaited opportunity to address operational gaps. For the ultra-Orthodox community, it represented a cultural crisis.
Within Netanyahu’s governing coalition, the issue has created a rift between the religious and secular factions. The ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas, have demanded swift legislation that would reinstate the exemption. But Likud’s Yuli Edelstein, chair of the influential Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, has refused to approve such a bill unless it includes strict financial and civil penalties for draft evaders. His proposed measures include revoking tax benefits, limiting access to housing and education subsidies, banning travel abroad, suspending driver’s licences, and more.
The backlash from the Haredi leadership was immediate. Degel HaTorah, the Lithuanian faction of UTJ, formally instructed its lawmakers to support dissolving the Knesset. The Hasidic faction, Agudat Yisrael, soon followed. Shas, under pressure from its spiritual leadership and grassroots activists, signalled its willingness to do the same. On the opposition benches, parties such as Yesh Atid, National Unity, and Yisrael Beytenu announced their intention to introduce a bill to dissolve the Knesset.
Ultra-Orthodox parties leveraging threat of elections
However, the math is not straightforward. Netanyahu’s coalition controls 68 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Even with UTJ’s seven and Shas’s eleven joining the opposition, securing the required majority of 61 votes for final passage of the dissolution bill is not guaranteed. As such, many political observers suspect that the ultra-Orthodox parties are leveraging the threat of elections to pressure Netanyahu into concessions rather than genuinely seeking to topple the government.
This interpretation is supported by recent behind-the-scenes manoeuvring. Jerusalem Affairs Minister Meir Porush has reportedly been working to reverse Agudat Yisrael’s support for early elections, acting on the advice of senior rabbis who believe that dissolving the government in the midst of ongoing military conflict would be reckless. Meanwhile, Shas is focused on expanding its influence through the appointment of municipal rabbis — a process that could be interrupted if snap elections are called. While technically legal, making such appointments becomes politically difficult during a campaign period.
There are also personal and legal dimensions at play. Netanyahu is currently standing trial on multiple corruption charges. Remaining prime minister during cross-examinations allows him to exert significant control over the judicial and political environment. Critics argue that his reluctance to resolve the draft law dispute stems from a desire to prolong his time in office and avoid being unseated during a critical phase of the trial.
What next for Israel?
If the bill to dissolve the Knesset advances, it must pass three readings. The first reading, or preliminary vote, could occur within days. However, passing all three requires sustained majority support, which may falter if even one faction changes course. Should the bill fail, parliamentary rules would prohibit reintroducing it for six months, locking the political system into its current gridlock.
If the Knesset is ultimately dissolved, the law stipulates that elections must be held within five months. Yet, the Haredi parties may not find future governments more accommodating. A secular or centrist-led coalition could take a harder stance on military exemptions, removing long-standing privileges entirely. Thus, many believe that the current crisis is less about principle and more about securing a favourable compromise while the opportunity still exists.
