New Delhi: A 2025 US Defense Intelligence Agency report highlights divergent threat perceptions between Pakistan and India. Pakistan views India as its primary existential threat, while India considers China its main adversary, treating Pakistan as a secondary security concern. The report outlines India’s defence priorities under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emphasising global leadership, countering Chinese influence and strengthening military capabilities.
Tensions flared in May 2025 after Indian airstrikes targeted terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, following a late April terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. The strikes triggered retaliatory missile, drone, and artillery exchanges between the two nations from May 7 to 10. Both sides agreed to a ceasefire on May 10. Despite these clashes, India remains focused on managing Pakistan as a lesser threat compared to China.
India boosts regional deterrence
India is enhancing its regional influence through defense partnerships in the Indian Ocean to counter China’s growing presence. The report notes that the 2024 India-China border disengagement eased some tensions from the 2020 clash but left unresolved border disputes. India’s “Made in India” initiative continues to drive domestic defense production, with advancements like the Agni-I Prime and Agni-V missile tests and the commissioning of a second nuclear-powered submarine in 2024 to bolster its nuclear triad.
India maintains ties with Russia to support its defense and economic goals, relying on Russian spare parts for its Soviet-era military equipment, though it has reduced procurement of Russian-origin systems. The report suggests India sees this relationship as a counterbalance to Russia-China alignment.
Pakistan’s dual-front security challenge
Pakistan, meanwhile, prioritises countering India, modernising its nuclear arsenal and addressing rising domestic militancy from groups like Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalists, which killed over 2,500 people in 2024. Pakistan’s military modernisation includes battlefield nuclear weapons to offset India’s conventional advantage.
It procures materials for its weapons of mass destruction programs, primarily from China, with transshipments through countries like Hong Kong and the UAE. Pakistan’s close ties with China include joint military exercises, though attacks on Chinese workers have strained relations. Additionally, Pakistan and Iran have worked to de-escalate tensions after reciprocal airstrikes in 2024, while clashes with Afghan forces in 2025 underscore ongoing border frictions.
