New Delhi: As the war between Israel and Iran continues, Russia finds itself navigating a complex geopolitical tightrope, by balancing its relationships with both key players in the Middle East. While the United States (US) maintains a cautious yet supportive stance towards Israel, Russia’s approach is markedly more nuanced, reflecting decades of carefully cultivated relationships in the region without hurting any ally directly.
Amid the rising tensions between the two countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in separate phone calls with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. This phone call reflects the Russian diplomacy in dealing with the Middle East crisis.
Why Putin rang up Trump?
Putin didn’t stop there, he also rang up US President Donald Trump, emphasising Russia’s uninvited willingness to interlocute Iran and Israel. He suggested steps towards mutually acceptable agreements to enforce truce, referencing past negotiations during the Iranian nuclear programme sanctions. These are not just diplomatic efforts to present itself as a “good nation” but also Russia’s attempt to exert influence in the Middle East region amid its ongoing war in Ukraine.
Russia trying to be in good books of both
Russia’s long-standing engagement in the Middle East has allowed it to build a delicate balance of power. Its close political, economic, and cultural ties with Israel have enabled cooperation on sensitive issues, most notably in Syria. Even the 2018 incident where a Russian military plane was shot down by Syrian forces while responding to an Israeli airstrike, resulting in 15 fatalities, did not visibly strain the relationship. It clearly points to the strengthened ties between the two and the balancing of power.
Now, the focus shifts to Russia-Iran relationship. Russia’s relationship with Iran is equally important, built on trade partnerships and arms deals sealed between the two countries over a period of time. Russia played a critical role in constructing Iran’s first nuclear power plant. It played a vital role in Iran nuclear deal in 2015 by providing both technological assistance and political backing. The time was crucial for Iran because the US had withdrawn the support and imposed sanctions. This long history prevents Russia from taking an outright pro-Israel stance.
Russia’s business and negotiation diplomacy
Currently, if there is any country which is yet to announce their support between Iran and Israel, it’s undoubtedly Russia. Russia is doing both business and negotiations to maintain a good rapport with both the countries. Despite supplying Iran with advanced S-300 air defense systems, it has been cautious in providing other advance weaponry which could damage Israel badly. This apparently is a conscious move so that there’s no power imbalance, and no side is alienated.
Furthermore, Israel’s reluctance to provide weapons to Ukraine, seemingly out of consideration for Russia’s interests in the ongoing war, hints at a reciprocal understanding. This shows how diplomacy works without affecting businesses between the two countries.
Condemned but no military support
In his telephonic conversations with both Netanyahu and Pezeshkian, Putin emphasised the importance of “diplomatic solutions” and offered mediation efforts to de-escalate tensions. While condemning the Israeli strikes and expressing condolences to Iran, Russia refrained from offering direct military support to Tehran. Instead, Russia’s public statements strongly condemned Israel’s actions and signalled its willingness to involve international bodies like the UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to get the deal done. This careful balancing act reflects Russia’s complex and strategic approach towards the volatile situation in the Middle East.
Does Russia benefit from Iran-Israel war?
The war between Israel and Iran seems beneficial for Moscow as the heightened tensions may shift global attention away from the ongoing war in Ukraine. Some observers believe that this distraction could inadvertently benefit Russia by potentially weakening Western support for Kyiv and bolstering Moscow’s economy.
The argument centers around several key points. First, a major international crisis like the Israel-Iran war has the potential to dominate news cycles and divert resources, both financial and political, from other global issues. This shift in focus could lead to a decrease in international pressure on Russia regarding its invasion of Ukraine. It will also potentially reduce the level of military and financial aid provided to the Ukrainian government.
Second, the conflict is likely to impact global oil prices. The Israeli attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure, and potential Iranian retaliation affecting regional oil production and distribution, could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. This would disproportionately benefit Russia, a major oil exporter, at a time when its economy is facing significant challenges due to international sanctions. Higher oil prices would provide a much-needed boost to Russia’s revenue, potentially mitigating the impact of sanctions and providing resources to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.
In short, while the Israel-Iran conflict is a separate and grave matter, some analysts believe that it presents an unintended strategic advantage to Russia, as it walks the tightrope.
